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“Earlier on today apparently a lady rang the BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way. Well don't worry if you're watching; there isn't.”

 

Looking straight to camera these were the words of the BBC weather Forecaster Michael Fish on 16^th October 1987... and he will rue them to his dying day. At 4am the following morning 100 mile an hour plus winds hit the South Coast of England and specifically Brighton where the crew of “Alexina of Shoreham” lived, albeit at that time in separate establishments. It blew in all of Helen's windows in her flat on the Sea Front and lifted the roof off Peter's house. Hardly a tree was left standing for 100 miles around.

 

WHO WOULD BE A WEATHER FORECASTER?

 

So why do they do it? Everywhere you go, just as you reach a certain number of boats in a harbour, sure as sure can be, some budding John Reith sets up a Net and corrals an unsuspecting fall guy to give a weather forecast. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what comes next. A few droplets of rain following a rain free forecast and the VHF is alive with requests of the best way to get rain spots out of fresh varnish. Oh! And hell really does hath no fury like a woman whose washing is on the line when the heavens open.

 

I do it because Karen from Antigua Lady has a guilty secret of mine and will tell the world if I do not give a regular forecast.

How do I do it? Weather forecasting is a simple matter of observing conditions and applying certain rules. Space prevents me from describing the rules here but the chapter “Weather Simplified” in the RYA Yachtmaster course notes contains virtually everything you need to know and indeed, everything I know.

First thing in the morning I look out of the cockpit and record wind direction, strength and cloud cover. Then I note down the barometer reading. I check that the weather we have is that which was forecast. Next step is to check the Navtex for the Iraklion forecast, this has a simple local synopsis, then I check the rtty (Short Wave radio teletext) to see if we have the Mediterranean synopsis from the DWD (Deutsche Wetter Dienst). Then onto the internet and check the satellite image and isobar overlay from US Navy Monterey. Using my observations the fruit of my studies and the combined synopsis, I then construct a forecast.

Armed with this forecast I check the internet sites for DWD, Poseidon and Wind Guru. If they agree with me then that is the forecast. If not, I check BBC, Turkish Meteo and Accuweather

sites and make an informed decision on what the weather will be (a small voice in the background is shouting “He guesses!”)

There, you see, anyone could do it. Please form an orderly queue at Alexina on Echo pontoon to volunteer for a weather forecasting slot on the Net.

P.S. For the pedants amongst you Michael Fish was quite correct in saying there was no hurricane coming. Hurricanes are specifically tropical storms. The South Coast of England, whilst enjoying a pleasant and temperate climate could never be described as being tropical, even in the hottest of the night clubs (well perhaps in Transformer).

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Remember that the prudent mariner is solely responsible for his crew and vessel. He or she checks as many sources as possible upon which to base his or her decision to stay in port, or go to sea . Carefully check the date stamp on all weather information.

 

 

THE WEATHER FORECAST

Peter of ‘Alexina of Shoreham’